Researchers at Emory University School of Medicine created the Health
ABC Heart Failure Model for predicting risk of new onset heart failure
in the elderly. Now that model has been strengthened by validating it
in a separate library of patient data from an earlier cardiovascular
The results suggest the Health ABC risk model can be used to
identify high-risk individuals for whom interventions can be targeted
cost-effectively to prevent heart failure.
"This is a scoring system that could help individuals or their
physicians understand their five-year risk for heart failure, using
basic risk factors that are easily obtained at relatively low cost,"
says Javed Butler, MD, MPH, associate professor of medicine and
director of heart failure research at Emory University School of
Andreas Kalogeropoulos, MD, a post-doctoral research fellow with
Butler, presents the findings Monday at the American College of
Cardiology conference in Orlando.
Heart failure is the leading cause of hospitalization in people
older than 65 and greatly increases the risk of sudden cardiac arrest.
The Health ABC model uses nine clinical measures to estimate the
risk of heart failure in patients who haven’t necessarily been seen by
doctors for coronary heart disease before. The nine measures are: age,
history of coronary heart disease, smoking, blood pressure, heart rate,
left ventricular hypertrophy measured by electrocardiography, and blood
levels of glucose, creatinine and albumin.
Several individual risk factors for heart failure have been
identified, but Butler says the model is the first that combines the
risk factors into a system for predicting risk for any given
individual. The model categorizes individuals into four risk categories
ranging from less than 5 (low) to more than 20 percent (very high)
5-year risk, and has been shown to perform well for men, women,
Caucasians and African Americans.
"Considering the high cost of care and poor outcomes for patients
who develop heart failure, any effort to identify these individuals
early on and facilitate intervention is likely to be of significant
benefit," Butler says.
The Health ABC model grew out of the Health Aging and Body
Composition Study, which followed 2,935 elderly people in the
Pittsburgh and Memphis areas over seven years starting in 1998. The
model was validated by assessing it in 5,335 people without
pre-existing heart failure from North Carolina, California, Maryland
and Pennsylvania who were participants in the Cardiovascular Health
Study beginning in 1989.
Butler and his colleagues also are presenting data from the Health
ABC study confirming previous work elsewhere showing that blood glucose
can predict heart failure risk even in non-diabetics and evaluating the
additional information doctors can glean from different measures of
Reference for the Health ABC heart failure risk model: Circulation Heart Failure 2008,1:125-133
Source : Emory University